|Saint Louis University · Earth & Atmospheric Sciences|
CIPS Winter Storm
This Period In CIPS
Using analogs as guidance for winter weather events
This research, which is in conjunction with Chad Gravelle's PhD work, is utilizing a climatology of organized snow events (>2"; developed by this research group), the NARR dataset, and forecasts (36h through 72h) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The concept is to show how the knowledge of past events that exhibit similar characteristics to the current forecast can assist forecasters with a range of potential scales and intensities of an upcoming event. During the winter of 2008-2009, this software was tested with good results. Currently, the guidance is run in real time at www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php ... if you would like to help and give suggestions on this work, please email Chad at gravelle[at]eas[dot]slu[dot]edu. Chad is currently working with NWS lead forecasters John Gagan (SGF) and Fred Glass (LSX), as well as Michael Evans (SOO at BGM) on this research.
Compositing analysis of heavy snow events in the St. Louis, MO County Warning Area
Jayson Gosselin, our newest member of the CIPS team, is working with Chad Gravelle and NWS lead forecaster Fred Glass on creating composite analyses by utilizing a long-term (27-winter) climatology of heavy snow events (>6") within the St. Louis, MO County Warning Area. An examination of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Cooperative Summary of the Day (COOP) data revealed 52 heavy snow events during the period. System relative composites will be created that will examine the synoptic and mesoscale environment that is potentially favorable for heavy snow in the St. Louis, MO County Warning Area. This research will initially be presented at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting in Louisville, KY in October of 2008.