This research, which is in conjunction with Chad Gravelle's PhD work, is utilizing a 27-winter climatology of organized snow events (>2"; developed by this research group), the NARR dataset, and medium range forecasts (~96h and 120h) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The concept is to show how the knowledge of past events that exhibit similar characteristics to the current forecast can assist forecasters with a range of potential scales and intensities of an upcoming event. During the winter of 2008-2009, this software will be tested in house. If you would like to help and give suggestions on this work, please email Chad at gravelle[at]eas[dot]slu[dot]edu. In the future, a webpage will be developed that will include the list of best analogs over the 27-winter period, their associated upper-air maps, and probabilistic guidance of snowfall amounts. Chad is currently working with NWS lead forecasters John Gagan (SGF) and Fred Glass (LSX) on this research.

Jayson Gosselin, our newest member of the CIPS team, is working with Chad Gravelle and NWS lead forecaster Fred Glass on creating composite analyses by utilizing a long-term (27-winter) climatology of heavy snow events (>6") within the St. Louis, MO County Warning Area. An examination of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Cooperative Summary of the Day (COOP) data revealed 52 heavy snow events during the period. System relative composites will be created that will examine the synoptic and mesoscale environment that is potentially favorable for heavy snow in the St. Louis, MO County Warning Area. This research will initially be presented at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting in Louisville, KY in October of 2008.