CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance

With impending retirement and closure of the meteorology program, the CIPS products will cease in mid June.
However, the University of Missouri has agreed to continue those products. When they become active, their URL will be posted here.


GEFS Run: 20260504/0000F168    Valid: 20260511/0000
20260504/0000 · 20260503/0000 · 20260502/0000 · 20260501/0000 · 20260430/0000 · 20260429/0000 · 20260428/0000 · 20260427/0000 · 20260426/0000
   All Severe  ·  Wind  ·  Hail  ·  Tornado
 Filled Contours      Pixels and Contours    
Threat Guidance for 20260504/0000 Run
Probability of Severe:
Climatological Frequency of Severe:
Significant Atmospheric Fields
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2.
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5.
Top 5 Most Similar Analogs
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Measures of Confidence for Prob. of Severe
Percentage of Top 100 with Severe:
Brier Skill Score:
Area Under Receiver Op. Characteristic Curve:
Day 1 (F024) Day 2 (F048) Day 3 (F072) Day 4 (F096) Day 5 (F120) Day 6 (F144) Day 7 (F168) Day 8 (F192)
05 May 2026 06 May 2026 07 May 2026 08 May 2026 09 May 2026 10 May 2026 11 May 2026 12 May 2026

Clicking on the map will update the values displayed in the table on the right side of the GUI.

For more information about the new Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance, click here.

Please send feedback and suggestions to slu[dot]cips[at]gmail[dot]com.





Last updated: 16:37 GMT 4 May 2026 · Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University · slu[dot]cips[at]gmail[dot]com