Considering we are starting this city while in Spring Break, I thought I would write an early discussion to start us off in the event no discussion is possible on Monday. This will serve as an overview for the week. If possible, regular discussions will be available each day.
A quick look at the teleconnections shows us a negative PNA pattern with the trough fully-entrenched on the west coast. This pattern does not appear to be breaking down too much in the near future, but it may de-amplify in the coming week as the NAO will be transitioning towards neutral to slightly negative. This may amplify an east coast trough to end the week and put the country east of the Rockies in a NW flow aloft with cold air entering the pattern again after a mild past few days. This is further supported by the AO trending negative as the week unfolds. Finally, the SOI has gone negative, but this could be some noise due to an enhanced ITCZ and a strong tropical cyclone on the eastern coast of Australia. Nonetheless, this drop in the SOI supports the subtropical jet becoming more of a player, so keep this in mind as we go through the next two weeks at KCVG.
Now, back to sensible weather. . . The average temperatures in KCVG this time of year is low 50s for a high and low 30s for a low. We will start the week well above normal, but with continental polar air behind a FROPA on Tuesday sometime, temperatures will surely go back toward normal levels for this time of year. Precipitation will be a big issue on Tuesday into Wednesday as a strong system gets its act together in the upper MS valley. This system is currently over the Pacific NW and will become negatively tilted as a sfc low and 850 mb low strengthen, while being ejected out of CO/NE on Tuesday. This storm will produce blizzard conditions in the upper MS valley and strong to severe thunderstorms for the Mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley, including Cincinnati. The WRF-NMM indicates some sfc-based CAPE to work with and lapse rates should be quite sufficient for vigorous convection ahead of the front. Tuesday's rain and thunderstorms will be due to strong positive theta-e advection ahead of and along the warm front before the cold front roars through late Tuesday into Wednesday. After this, NW flow will prevail which means drier weather to end the week as the SE ridge loses some of its staying power. There is a suspicious-looking system that will move across the southern plains into the lower MS valley and SE late week. More on this later.
Good luck and good forecasting!