1999 REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR
RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
The Missouri Seismic Safety Commission presented its report A Strategic Plan for Earthquake Safety in Missouri to the Governor in May, 1997. Commission activities were then directed toward monitoring progress in addressing the five objectives presented in the report. The purpose of this second annual report is to highlight successes, opportunities and concerns.
This year's report differs in one significant aspect from last year's. Because of the wide distribution of this report, the Commission realized that this report should be used as a vehicle for disseminating information about Missouri earthquakes, and has solicited informative articles for this publication. In addition, the centerfold of this report contains maps which can be used in classrooms.
1. Successes
1999 Earthquake Awareness Week met with mixed success in St. Louis. The symposium for business and industry leaders did not meet the expectations set the year before, but the informational exhibits presented at the St. Louis Science Center on February 6th were a great success. More exhibitors and an excellent traffic flow yielded more information going to citizens in the Bi-state area.
Release of two Science Magazine articles, one measuring the deformation (strain) rate of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (Newmann, et.al.), and the other measuring fault strain in folds (Mueller, et.al.), yielded mixed and confusing signals to the general public. Dr. Seth Stein of Northwestern University has measured a low strain rate, so low that slippage at this rate would indicate a very large earthquake only every 1,000 to 10,000 years. Dr. Mueller's (University of Colorado) study of strain measurements in folds in soil yielded an estimate of large earthquakes every 450 to 650 years. While the release of these studies would suggest that the geologists do not agree as to how big and how often an earthquake will happen, the success is that these are of interest to the public and the media is giving these studies widespread circulation.
Recent quakes in Turkey, Taiwan, Greece and Mexico demonstrated just how large the risk of major centers of populations can be in relation to the earthquake threat.
The Commission recommends that good information be developed and brought to the attention of the public.
2. Opportunities
The Missouri Department of Insurance has taken a leadership role with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in providing materials that will allow the MoDOI to grant rate increases that will allow Missouri citizens to gain earthquake coverage at reasonable rates and deductibles. The Missouri Seismic Safety Commission has been working with MoDOI and the industry to help them determine if the computer modeling the industry is using is correct and viable for establishing rate requests.
Senator Harold Caskey, Missouri State Senate, introduced a Senate Concurrent Resolution (SCR #5) that established the Governor's Commission For the Review and Formulation of Building Codes. This Commission has been reviewing and will make recommendations to the Governor (and General Assembly) on legislation needed to make building codes available to all local municipalities and counties. Currently, 93 of 114 counties do not have the right to establish building codes and inspection services for their constituents. These are counties of the third class. One member of the Missouri Seismic Safety Commission (Commissioner Phyllis J. Steckel) and the SEMA Director Jerry B. Uhlmann serve on this Commission. The Commission's report is due out by the end of 1999.
The Commission recommends continued and increased cooperation of State agencies to assure that the citizens of the State of Missouri can mitigate their homes and workplaces against the ravages of the impending earthquake.
3. Concerns
The Central United States Earthquake Consortium has been a resource for the Missouri Seismic Safety Commission. Recently, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has severely cut back its support of this consortium. From an annual budget of $360,000, this has been reduced by over 51% to $185,000. The Consortium has been a key player in multi-state planning and has been an innovator in earthquake preparedness and mitigation programs for its constituent states (Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas). Cut backs in this area will impact the effectiveness of these programs and their delivery to citizens of Missouri.
As indicated in last year's report, the current funding of the earthquake program is still uncertain. Presently the state relies upon funding from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to support earthquake mitigation within State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA). The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) monies have been merged with other monies to form the Emergency Management Performance Grant (EMPG). While this allows maximum flexibility for the Director of SEMA to allocate program funds, it can also be used to turn earthquake funds away from the earthquake field. Reports of the demise of the Illinois Earthquake Program was confirmed at a meeting held in Memphis recently.
The Commission continues to recommend that stable State funding be provided for the Missouri earthquake mitigation and preparedness program.
SEMA continues to train local jurisdictions in the Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) program. This program has gathered much interest in the southeast portion of the state as well as St. Louis. Missouri needs to continue its support of the CERT training.
The Commission wishes to commend the State Emergency Management Agency for its pro-active role in sponsoring the CERT program. It recommends that further funding and more courses be added to the schedule. The Commisson also recommends that staffing levels be reviewed to determine if an additional trainer needs to be assigned to the program.
The Commission recommends that SEMA review and, if necessary, recommend hiring a person to train and track the CERT program.
The development of the series of earthquake hazard maps for the area from St. Louis to Caruthersville has been completed. Through the Association of CUSEC State Geologists, new mapping of specific areas has been undertaken. The newest map of Cape Girardeau is being developed at a scale of 1:24,000, which corresponds to the standard topographical map, will allow planners and city officials to use the map for better land use. It is also designed to be used with FEMA's loss estimation methodology program, HAZUS.
The Commission recommends that the new series of maps for the State be assessed and that scientific investigations be conducted to evaluate the viability of this scale of mapping to be used for the largest metropolitan areas of the state closest to the New Madrid Seismic Zone.
The development of the 1996 hazard maps under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program highlights the earthquake concern in southeast Missouri. These maps are being used by the insurance industry and federal regulatory agencies to make economic decisions affecting the State. The national maps do not account for unique factors that modify expected earthquake ground motions in the Bootheel.
The Commission recommends that the impact of these new maps on the State be assessed and that scientific investigations be conducted to evaluate the assumptions upon which these maps are based.
4. Acknowledgments
The Commission commends the support given to it by SEMA Director Jerry B. Uhlmann and the assistance of Mr. Edward Gray of the SEMA staff. Missouri is fortunate to have these individuals watching out for the public's safety.
The Missouri Seismic Safety Commission